The three scenarios of "Our New Europe" correspond with the three most frequently discussed visions for Europe. They are based on the following assumptions:
Each country shall continue to decideautonomously on these national issues and on its relationship with the EU.
An ever closer Union:
"There's no alternative!"
"Brussels" (i.e., the vast majority of the EU elites, politicians and its administration) continues to strive for an ever closer, more centralized, politically integrated and bigger Union; finally, for a global power, the United States of Europe - presumably as so far without asking its citizens to decide in EU wide referenda. Even national referenda on Europe have if possible to be avoided, inappropriate results to be ignored or corrected.
Additional powers are transferred from the member countries to "Brussels", to begin with to form a common economic and financial government for the Euro zone (with EU tax, transfer payments from the wealthier to less wealthy countries). A common European policy is needed to cope with the refugee crises, involving Turkey, with which negotiations on its EU membership shall be accelerated. A way back from the EU+ does not exist.
Brexit - leave the Union:
"We want our country back!"
EU opponents (e.g. the United Kingdom Independence Party, UKIP, the AfD in Germany and the Front National in France) do not believe that the EU can really be reformed. They want their country to withdraw from the Union (maintaining however trade relations; respectively not to join the EU, if it is not yet a member).
It thus can recover the right to decide on its own laws (e.g. on immigration, and in economic and fiscal matters), and sign international agreements with all countries throughout the world.
by the citizens:
"A new democratic Europe!"
According to EU critics and sceptics, the EU shall become more flexible, more decentralized and more democratic. In the scenario EU* transformed, the citizens all over Europe shall therefore decide in popular referenda on their country's adherence to a politically integrated core EU, or to the European common market (including the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital, but without the Euro), or to a large European free trade zone, open to all European countries between Reykjavik and Vladivostok; and which role they as citizens want to play in this Europe.
If this scenario achieves solid majorities in many countries, in a hight turn-out "Our New Europe" referendum, this result could rapidly launch the transformation of the EU into a Europe at variable geometry, close to the citizens.