Image: Europe where to? 3 scenarios for Europe
Europe where to? Image: ultimatetitanic.com

Scenarios for Europe's Future

The three scenarios of "Our New Europe" correspond with the three most frequently discussed visions for Europe. They are based on the following assumptions:

  • Definition: The scenarios of "Our New Europe" are conceptual models indicating possible future developments of democracy and subsidiarity in Europe under specific assumptions and prerequisites.

     

  • Limits: All scenarios of "Our New Europe" exclusively deal with Europe and its relations to European countries, but not domestic matters, such as the structure of the State,government, democracy and the economy, centralisation and decentralisation. 

Each  country shall continue to decideautonomously on these national issues and on its relationship with the EU.

  • General framework for all scenarios: The EU continues to defend peace and prosperity in Europe and in the world, the respect of the common European values of the Enlightenment, e.g.  human dignity, human rights, democracy and freedom (Art. 2, consolidated version of the Treaty on the European Union), and the great European peace project.

 


The three Scenarios of "Our New Europe"

EU+: reinforced
An ever closer Union:

"There's no alternative!"

Image: Jean-Claude Juncker, foto changepartnership.org
Juncker;changepartnership.org

 "Brussels" (i.e., the vast majority of the EU elites, politicians and its administration) continues to strive for an ever closer, more centralized, politically integrated and bigger Union;  finally, for a global power, the United States of Europe - presumably as so far without asking its citizens to decide in EU wide referenda. Even national referenda on Europe have if possible to be avoided, inappropriate results to be ignored or corrected.

 

Additional powers are transferred from the member countries to "Brussels", to begin with to form a common economic and financial government for the Euro zone (with EU tax, transfer payments from the wealthier to less wealthy countries). A common European policy is needed to cope with the refugee crises, involving Turkey, with which negotiations on its EU membership shall be accelerated. A way back from the EU+ does not exist. 

EU-: reduced

Brexit - leave the Union:

"We want our country back!"

Image: Nigel Farage - flickr.com
Nigel Farage (flickr.com)

 EU opponents (e.g. the United Kingdom Independence Party, UKIP, the AfD in Germany and the Front National in France) do not believe that the EU can really be reformed.  They want their country to withdraw from the Union (maintaining however trade relations; respectively not to join the EU, if it is not yet a member).

 

It thus can recover the right to decide on its own laws (e.g. on immigration, and in economic and fiscal matters), and sign international agreements with all countries throughout the world.

 

 

 

EU* transformed

by the citizens:

"A new democratic Europe!"

Image: David Cameron, foto: wordpress.com
D. Cameron (wordpress.com)

 According to EU critics and sceptics, the EU shall become more flexible, more decentralized and more democratic. In the scenario EU* transformed, the citizens all over Europe shall therefore decide in popular referenda on their country's adherence to a politically integrated core EU, or to the European common market (including the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital, but without the Euro), or to a large European free trade zone, open to all European countries between Reykjavik and Vladivostok; and which role they as citizens want to play in this Europe.

 

If this scenario achieves solid majorities in many countries, in a hight turn-out "Our New Europe" referendum, this result could rapidly launch the transformation of the EU into a Europe at variable geometry, close to the citizens.