The three scenarios of "Our New Europe" correspond with the three most frequently discussed visions for Europe. They are based on the following assumptions:
Business as usual!
An ever closer Union:
"There's no alternative!"
"Brussels" (i.e., the vast majority of the EU elites, politicians and its administration) continues to strive for an ever closer, more centralized, politically integrated and bigger Union; finally, for a global power, the United States of Europe.
As up to now, the citizens shall not have a say on Europe's future in EU-wide referenda. Even national referenda regarding Europe must, if possible be avoided; inappropriate results shall be ignored or corrected.
Additional powers can thus more easily be transferred from member countries to "Brussels", e.g. to create a common economic and financial government for the Euro zone (with a EU tax and transfer payments), as well as common European refugee and public health, foreign and defence policies.
There is no way back from the EU+!
Leave the Union!
"We want our country back!"
Many EU opponents do not believe in the EU's willingness to reform and therefore demand their country's national independence in order to be allowed to legislate and to conclude free trade agreements worldwide.
On 23.6.16, the UK citizens decided by referendum to leave the EU (Brexit). This decision was resolutely opposed not only by the EU, but also in the British parliament, dominated by Brexit opponents.
Only in the parliamentary elections on 12.12.19 gave the Tories under Prime Minister Boris Johnson a huge victory and an clear mandate for "Get Brexit done" - also thanks to Nigel Farage and his Brexit party!
The United Kingdom formally left the EU on 31.1.20. and will leave it for good on 1.1.21 - with or without a contract: a hazard or chance for Europe?
A new Europe through referenda!
Diverse, democratic, open for all!
EU critics and skeptics want the EU to become more flexible, decentralized and more democratic.
In this scenario EU*, the citizens all over Europe shall decide in referenda, which role they as citizens want to play in this Europe.
In particular, if they want to have the last word on all important European issues, e.g. if their country should adhere to a politically integrated core EU, or to the European common market/economic area (including the free movement of goods, services and capital, but not of people, and without the Euro), or to a large European free trade zone, open to all European countries; - but also on immigration, communication, transport, culture, research, education, health, etc.
Millions of convinced dedicated Europeans can thus create a new, diverse, democratic Europe!